How often do you rely on expert’s predictions? How often are they right? Do we ever call people out for their wrong predictions?
Think about this.
I can predict the winner of a football game. I can predict the winner of a political race. I can predict the weather. You don’t believe me?
I can predict these things correctly, eventually. If I make enough predictions eventually I will get them right one of those times. The key is you don’t know when I will be right and plus I never said when I would be!
This reminds me of when I was at a conference a couple years ago and I had the privilege of listening to James Carville and his wife Mary Matalin. If you don’t know who these two are you can Google them to find out they both help run political campaigns and each hold radically different political views. The moderator at the time was having them discuss the 2012 political election. As you probably remember it was between Obama and Romney. Well, James Carville gave his prediction as to who he thought the winner was going to be as did his wife Mary. They both predicted their respective parties winning, James for Obama, and Mary for Romney.
I wondered why James was so calm during the debate. Maybe it was his personality or maybe he actually knew Obama was going to win. Either way, it provoked me to think that the person who was the loudest, his wife, was the one everyone perceived as right.
The truth was that neither of them truly knew who would win the presidential race. Yes, they each wanted their respective parties to win, but deep down they had to know the outcome was still uncertain. But it just wasn’t them, we as the audience wanted insight to know who was going to win as well.
Today, we know who can claim their prediction was correct that day.
I can hear it now. Who does James Carville think will win the presidential race for 2016? He predicted right for the 2012 campaign so he must know. This goes on and on. We look for anyone to tell us what the outcome of the next big event will be, because after all we don’t know, but the experts do …
We hear it everyday through the media. Whose the loudmouth expert getting his prediction heard about which way the stock market is headed? Just visit Marketwatch and you will find tons of predictions on whatever your heart desires.
Don’t buy into predictions. If you forget and buy into one of these predictions, just remember …. Predictions are 100% accurate eventually.
The future is never certain, right?
How many experts can you remember getting predictions right? Where they ever called out on them? If so why or why not?